The particular Bettor That Broken a Horse-Racing Code
The difficulty is that you need to have a minimum number of fixed sums bet on the football and the coupon’s odds will change significantly.
The best way to avoid this problem is by checking the result of the previous football match.
The preferred way to calculate the expected profit is to take the fraction of goals and the average result for each of the previous matches and combine them in a ratio.
For example, a 2:1 ratio for the chances of a Chelsea win will result in:
which results in an expected profit of £0.65 for a £10 stake on Chelsea to win.
This is calculated as:
(Average results for last four matches) – Average results for last match
To see the performance of a betting tip, one should use the below table.
On average, the betting tip for the home team was correct 68% of the time, which is equivalent to an expected profit of £1.40 for a £10 stake on the home team to win.
Betting tips by teams are considerably more common than betting tips by results.
In fact, 94% of the average betting tips are betting tips for specific teams.
The examples used in the table above include: “Chelsea/Man Utd”, “Leicester/Liverpool”, “West Ham/Arsenal”, and “Arsenal/Man Utd”.
Generally, for betting tips to be successful, it is worth sticking to a certain minimum amount of money for each team and bet on the team which is more likely to win.
For example, a £10 bet on Liverpool to win would produce an expected profit of £1.40 on a £10 stake.
On the other hand, a £10 bet on Arsenal to win would produce a predicted loss of £1.40, as Arsenal usually wins the game on any given day.
By placing a bet on every home team to win, the expected profit per pound would be a minimum of £4, however this would not be achievable, as most of the bets will not pay off, unless one would be willing to risk losing the entire £10.
Home team betting tips can be considered as a type of ‘reference class prediction’.
This is the process of predicting a team’s performance, by combining the ratings of two or more reference classes of teams.
The ‘reference class’ refers to teams with similar strength or performance.
If we look at Chelsea’s current standing in the Premier League table and its league standing before the Chelsea vs.
Watford match, the reference class of both teams would be the 2005–06 season Chelsea team.
This is the highest possible reference class because Chelsea was top of the league.
In a sense, the players that played for the 2005–06 Chelsea team still play for the team currently in the current league table, although the league table reflects the performance of the players’ teams.
(See reference classes in statistics.)
When Chelsea played Watford, their class of 2005–06, is the reference class for both the team Chelsea and for Watford.
So, if one were to bet on Chelsea winning the match, his bet would reflect the expected performance of the 2005–06 Chelsea team, and that is why it was called a betting tip.